After five exciting events in 2023, the Bosch Motorsport Australia Rally Championship (ARC) title fight has come down to the final round of the season.
Two crews are in contention for the outright title with Lewis Bates and Anthony McLoughlin holding a slight advantage over Toyota Gazoo Racing Australia teammates Harry Bates and Coral Taylor.
As it stands, Lewis and McLoughlin sit on 444 points heading into this weekend’s Subaru Canberra Rally of Canberra, while Harry and Taylor sit on 421 points.
A maximum of 110 points are on offer in the final round of the season, with 100 points to be awarded to the overall winner at the end of the 12 stages, while an extra 10 bonus points can be won in Sunday’s EROAD Power Stage.
In short, Harry and Taylor need to win both the event and the EROAD Power Stage to win their first title since 2019, while Lewis and McLoughlin simply need to win the event to go back-to-back.
However, any other result is where the title fight gets interesting.
There are plenty of various results that can occur over the course of the weekend and rally.com.au has crunched the numbers to work out the most likely scenarios.
IF Lewis wins the event, THEN he will win the title, regardless of the EROAD Power stage result or where Harry finishes.
IF Harry wins the event and Power Stage, THEN he wins the title regardless of where Lewis finishes.
IF Harry wins the event but finishes second to Lewis on the EROAD Power Stage, THEN Lewis wins the title.
IF Harry wins the event but finishes third in the EROAD Power Stage, while Lewis finishes second in the event and either fourth, second or first in the EROAD Power Stage, THEN Lewis wins the title.
IF Harry wins the event but finishes third in the EROAD Power Stage, while Lewis finishes second in the event but fifth in the EROAD Power Stage, THEN Harry wins the title on a countback.
IF Harry wins the event but finishes third in the EROAD Power Stage, while Lewis finishes second in the event but sixth or lower in the EROAD Power Stage, THEN Harry wins the title.
IF Harry wins the event but Lewis finishes third, THEN Harry just needs to finish third or higher in the EROAD Power Stage to win the title.
IF Harry finishes the event in second and Lewis in third, THEN Lewis wins the title regardless of what happens in the EROAD Power Stage
IF Harry finishes the event in second and Lewis in fourth, THEN Harry needs win the EROAD Power Stage and requires Lewis to place third or lower.
Other results
IF Harry finishes the event any lower than second, THEN he will need Lewis to finish more than three positions behind and win the EROAD Power Stage.
IF Harry does not finish the full event, THEN Lewis will win the title regardless of where he finishes in the event.
IF Lewis does not finish the full event and Harry finishes 13th or higher, THEN Harry wins the title.
IF Lewis does not finish the full event and Harry finishes lower than 13th, THEN Harry needs to finish third or higher on the EROAD Power Stage to win the title.
White Wolf Constructions ARC Production Cup
The Production Cup is the other class where the title is in the balance with the two main contenders being Bodie Reading and Steve Maguire.
While the co-driver Production Cup win already belongs to Mark Young, the driver battle is certainly still up for grabs.
In the Cup, each driver’s four best results of the season contribute to their final result making the Production Cup a much simpler equation for the outright title.
With Reading holding a 30-point advantage over Maguire, Maguire needs to win the final round in order to win the title.
Anything less and Reading will be crowned the Production Cup title.
Should Maguire win the event and Reading finish second, the latter will still win the title having scored more points, while a third place to Reading will see the two crews on equal points with the latter to win the title on countback.
If Maguire wins the event, and Reading finishes fourth or lower, then the former will be crowned Production Cup champion.
View the current standings here.
The Subaru Canberra Rally of Canberra takes place in Canberra on 17-19 November.
